The Aftermath of US Pullout from Afghanistan

By:  Faisal R. Qureshi

Disclaimer: The views reflected in the article are purely the writer’s own and in no way the ITO’s.

With the announcement of US Pull-out from war-rotten Afghanistan, the war in Afghanistan is taking a new dimension.  We must understand that this war is in no way only a trilateral (US-PAK-AFG) stake, there are many other players involved in this arena too. Apparently, there is no other foreign hand involved in scene, but covertly or silently Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, India and former Soviet States bordering Afghanistan have their own national and strategic interests in this war, which are ignored by independent analysts.

There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and China are the most relied and tested friends of ours, but our friendship with them vis-à-vis their national and strategic interests in the region are two different things.

Pakistan as bordering state of Afghanistan gets affected by every traumatic development there. Afghanistan is ethnic diversified country having huge 40% of Pakhtoon demography, having close blood relations with Pakistanian Pakhtoon population, and up till very near past there was no specific border transit points.  Afghanistaninternal situation must improve and no interference of regional players, i.e.India, Iran etc. Failing whichUSwithdrawal will create further chaos and instability in the region.

For Pakistan, we have to sort out our power problems, After US withdrawal we have to fight an economy war for which we are not ready, especially we have to focus and design anti money laundering measures, the government lacks vision in the international and regional politics thus often find ourselves in crises situations. And for sure the power lust exists and they will re-burn the power game with guns and grenades, as happened in post USSR Afghanistan. US withdrawal from Afghanistan will put the situation back to square one. Owing to the vacuum that will be created by American withdrawal,Afghanistanwill once again slip into internecine struggle which has been its consistent feature since ages. Pakistan, being next door neighbor, will inevitably be drawn into the struggle and forced to take side.

Once the US Forces exit from Afghanistan Taliban are expected to come in power, at least in the Pakhtoon areas, and there will be an obvious divide in the country which may lead to its disintegration, on pure ethnic basis. This scenario will again trigger the fuel on the fire and will further deepen the crises.

The withdrawal if proceeds as planned is going to bring more challenges for Pakistan as a lumped entity in the AFPAK as we will have to take care of their agenda-fighting the extremism and keeping safe the Durand corridor up to Tajikistan to protect and further the investment already made in the Central Asian Republics. But who knows what is up the so many sleeves of the regional and international actors of whose working the region has become an arena. What may be at stock for us at least we should discuss to have awareness and not be caught unaware. More over these crises will further place negative effect on our relations with China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran.

Conclusively, we can say that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave worse impact on Pakistan. Pressure will mount on Pakistan nuclear and strategic assets, , more influence of China in our foreign policy, more conflicts will arise with Afghanistan, of course, India will rise as regional power and Pakistan will have to face some internal threats as well i.e. poor economy, high crime rates and might be a change in the House. Nevertheless, whatever the case may be but one thing is for sure that the American exit from Afghanistan will definitely stir the scenario in the region and the bottom-line is that we should not be caught unaware.

The writer is a finance expert freelance, currently based at Hyderabad.

Tags:  Afghanistan, american forces, pakistan, taliban, USA, war on terror